Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.7 | 11.4% | 20 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.3 | 10.9% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.9 | 18.9% | 33 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.9 | 16.6% | 29 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.7 | 9.1% | 16 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.4 | 12% | 21 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.6 | 8.6% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.7 | 12.6% | 22 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 16 | 15.1 | 100% | 175 | 0.17% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 29752 | 223247 | 695 | 178 | 239 |
| Feb 26 | 29760 | 223525 | 695 | 178 | 211 |
| Feb 27 | 29767 | 223661 | 695 | 178 | 183 |
| Feb 28 | 29780 | 223847 | 695 | 178 | 171 |
| Mar 01 | 29810 | 224211 | 696 | 178 | 183 |
| Mar 02 | 29824 | 224488 | 696 | 178 | 187 |
| Mar 03 | 29840 | 224594 | 696 | 178 | 175 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 18472 | 148867 | 682 | 176 | 133 |
| Feb 26 | 18474 | 149051 | 682 | 176 | 107 |
| Feb 27 | 18479 | 149120 | 682 | 176 | 100 |
| Feb 28 | 18489 | 149222 | 682 | 176 | 88 |
| Mar 01 | 18505 | 149429 | 682 | 176 | 97 |
| Mar 02 | 18507 | 149676 | 682 | 176 | 93 |
| Mar 03 | 18509 | 149743 | 682 | 176 | 86 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 5.8% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.4 | 7% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 15.1% | 13 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.0 | 17.4% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.9 | 14% | 12 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.7 | 10.5% | 9 | 0.09% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.9 | 11.6% | 10 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.0 | 18.6% | 16 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 2 | 6.3 | 100% | 86 | 0.13% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 13330 | 87421 | 531 | 138 | 88 |
| Feb 26 | 13332 | 87495 | 531 | 138 | 74 |
| Feb 27 | 13337 | 87599 | 531 | 138 | 70 |
| Feb 28 | 13344 | 87663 | 531 | 138 | 71 |
| Mar 01 | 13348 | 87755 | 531 | 138 | 67 |
| Mar 02 | 13352 | 87850 | 532 | 138 | 65 |
| Mar 03 | 13357 | 87884 | 532 | 138 | 56 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.1 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.9 | 14.3% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.9% | 5 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.0 | 14.3% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.9 | 19.6% | 11 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.7 | 14.3% | 8 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.9 | 17.9% | 10 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 5 | 5.1 | 100% | 56 | 0.12% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 34080 | 300783 | 1006 | 165 | 291 |
| Feb 26 | 34090 | 301050 | 1006 | 165 | 254 |
| Feb 27 | 34110 | 301206 | 1006 | 165 | 234 |
| Feb 28 | 34145 | 301524 | 1006 | 165 | 243 |
| Mar 01 | 34176 | 301871 | 1006 | 165 | 263 |
| Mar 02 | 34194 | 302251 | 1006 | 165 | 267 |
| Mar 03 | 34220 | 302377 | 1006 | 165 | 251 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 4.7 | 17.1% | 43 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.0 | 13.1% | 33 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 3.0 | 17.9% | 45 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.7 | 13.9% | 35 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.0 | 9.6% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.6 | 7.2% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.7 | 7.6% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.9 | 13.5% | 34 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 26 | 23.6 | 100% | 251 | 0.21% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 121946 | 2353773 | 2543 | 484 | 1272 |
| Feb 26 | 122009 | 2355666 | 2546 | 484 | 1135 |
| Feb 27 | 122048 | 2356630 | 2548 | 484 | 997 |
| Feb 28 | 122112 | 2358305 | 2551 | 484 | 897 |
| Mar 01 | 122202 | 2360851 | 2553 | 484 | 887 |
| Mar 02 | 122268 | 2363424 | 2553 | 484 | 886 |
| Mar 03 | 122344 | 2364674 | 2554 | 484 | 839 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 12.0 | 16.6% | 139 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 9.1 | 11.9% | 100 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 14.3 | 20.4% | 171 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 13.0 | 17% | 143 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 7.6 | 10.6% | 89 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 7.1 | 9.4% | 79 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 6.4 | 8.9% | 75 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.7 | 5.1% | 43 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 76 | 73.3 | 100% | 839 | 0.15% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | 1571111 | 13645634 | 62371 | 13477 | 10438 |
| Feb 26 | 1571535 | 13659214 | 62387 | 13483 | 9029 |
| Feb 27 | 1571884 | 13667183 | 62401 | 13486 | 7881 |
| Feb 28 | 1572583 | 13679773 | 62432 | 13486 | 7317 |
| Mar 01 | 1573407 | 13699230 | 62466 | 13488 | 7431 |
| Mar 02 | 1574001 | 13717676 | 62483 | 13488 | 7561 |
| Mar 03 | 1574581 | 13726339 | 62492 | 13489 | 7155 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 69 | 79.9 | 13.2% | 943 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 78 | 65.9 | 10.3% | 737 | 0.1% |
| 20-29 | 83 | 80.6 | 14% | 1001 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 96 | 99.1 | 16.1% | 1149 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 70 | 73.0 | 11.8% | 845 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 73 | 75.4 | 12.8% | 914 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 58 | 66.3 | 10.5% | 749 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 52 | 67.4 | 11.3% | 810 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 580 | 608.0 | 100% | 7155 | 0.12% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-03-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13939"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges